Remote Sensing and GIS Applications in Environmental Sciences

Spatial Prediction of Flood hazard Potential Using Two Statistical Models: Surface Density and Frequency Ratio (Case Study: Buyouk Chai drainage basin, Sarab County)

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Dept. of Geomorphology University of Tabriz and Iranian Hazardology Association

2 Postdoctoral Researcher. Department of Geomorphology, Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences, University of Tabriz. Tabriz, Iran

3 3MSc. Student Department of Geomorphology, Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences, University of Tabriz. Tabriz

10.22034/rsgi.2025.66386.1126

Abstract

Objective: Annually, intense and flood-inducing rainfall in northwestern Iran, particularly in the Buyouk Chai basin,human and financial losses. The Buyouk Chai basin, located in Sarab County, is considered a high-hazard area for flooding due to its vast area and adequate rainfall. The objective of this study is to spatially predict the potential flood hazard across this basin.
Methods: This research employs two statistical models: Surface Density and Frequency Ratio (FR). To prepare flood hazard potential maps for the study area, 11 parameters influencing flood occurrence were utilized, including elevation, slope, aspect, land use, vegetation index, precipitation, distance from river, drainage density, lithology, soil type, and topographic wetness index.
Results: The analysis of parameter significance revealed that low-lying areas with gentle slopes and regions close to rivers are most susceptible to flooding. The evaluation of model accuracy demonstrated that both models are capable of producing flood hazard maps with relatively high precision across different areas of the basin.
Conclusions: The findings indicate that topographic features, such as slopes and elevations, significantly influence water flow and flood hazard. The calculation of the area for each flood hazard class shows that in the Frequency Ratio model, over 10% of the region's area falls within the very high-hazard category, while in the Surface Density model, approximately 6% of the area is classified as very high-hazard in terms of flood potential. These results underscore the importance of topographic factors in flood hazard assessment and highlight the effectiveness of the employed models in identifying high-hazard zones.

Keywords

Main Subjects

هدف: هر ساله، بارش‌های شدید و سیل‌آسا در شمال غرب ایران، به ویژه در حوضه آبریز بیوک چای، خسارات جانی و مالی قابل توجهی به همراه دارد. حوضه آبریز بیوک چای، واقع در شهرستان سراب، به دلیل وسعت زیاد و دریافت بارش‌های مناسب، از جمله مناطق با پتانسیل بالای خطر وقوع سیل محسوب می‌شود. بنابراین، هدف این پژوهش، پیش‌بینی مکانی پتانسیل خطر وقوع سیل در سطح این حوضه است.

روش پژوهش: جهت انجام تحقیق حاضر از دو مدل آماری تراکم سطح و نسبت فراوانی (FR) استفاده شده است. برای تهیه نقشه‌های پتانسیل خطر سیل در منطقه مورد مطالعه، از 11 پارامتر مؤثر در وقوع سیل استفاده شده است که شامل ارتفاع، شیب، جهت شیب، کاربری اراضی، شاخص پوشش گیاهی، بارش، فاصله از آبراهه، تراکم آبراهه، لیتولوژی، خاک و شاخص رطوبت توپوگرافی می‌شود.

نتایج: بررسی اهمیت پارامترها نشان داد که مناطق کم‌ارتفاع با شیب کم و همچنین مناطق نزدیک به آبراهه‌ها، بیشترین استعداد را برای وقوع سیل دارند. ارزیابی دقت مدل‌ها نیز نشان داد که هر دو مدل با دقت نسبتاً بالایی قادر به تهیه نقشه‌های خطر سیل در مناطق مختلف حوضه هستند.

نتیجه‌: نتایج تحقیق نشان داد که ویژگی‌های توپوگرافی، مانند شیب‌ها و ارتفاعات، تأثیر قابل‌توجهی بر جریان آب و خطر سیل دارند. محاسبه مساحت هر یک از کلاس‌های خطر وقوع سیل نشان می‌دهد که در مدل نسبت فراوانی بیش از 10 درصد از مساحت منطقه در پهنه‌های خیلی زیاد و در مدل تراکم سطح حدود 6 درصد از مساحت منطقه در طبقه خیلی زیاد از نظر پتانسیل خطر وقوع سیل قرار دارند. 

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Remote Sensing and GIS Applications in Environmental Sciences
Volume 5, Issue 15
August 2025
Pages 116-98
  • Receive Date: 13 March 2025
  • Revise Date: 17 April 2025
  • Accept Date: 04 August 2025